Canada’s progress in reducing carbon emissions has shown a slowdown, as reported by the federal government to the UN. Emissions from oil and gas have continued to increase post-pandemic. The latest National Inventory Report for 2024, which offers a comprehensive overview of emissions along with revisions to previous years’ data, indicates minimal changes across Canada’s economic sectors.
Dave Sawyer, a principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, expressed doubts about achieving the 2030 emission reduction target. He emphasized the fragility of the progress made so far and the possibility of emissions moving in the wrong direction.
Released on April 15, the report revealed that the 2024 emissions stood at 685 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, slightly lower than the 687 MtCO2 recorded in 2023. This translates to a 10% reduction from 2005 levels. Canada aims to bring emissions down to 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, as set by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2021 under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.
While electricity generation has significantly contributed to emission cuts since 2005, with a 57% reduction due to the phasing out of coal plants and increased use of cleaner energy sources, concerns remain. The rise in gas-powered electricity generation in Alberta and Ontario, coupled with insufficient growth in renewables like solar and wind, poses challenges for the future.
On the other hand, the oil and gas industry, a major emission source in Canada, continues to expand. Production has been increasing since 2024 in Alberta and British Columbia, driven by projects like the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and the new LNG export terminal in Kitimat, B.C. Emissions from oil and gas peaked in 2014, declined to 203 MtCO2eq in 2020, and have been on the rise again. Notably, emissions from oilsands production have steadily increased from 33 MtCO2eq in 2005 to 92 MtCO2eq in 2024.
Sawyer highlighted the concerning trend of emissions from oilsands offsetting gains made in other sectors like electric vehicles and cleaner energy sources. Without addressing emissions from oilsands, Canada’s overall emissions are likely to remain stagnant, he warned.
