A recent peer-reviewed study highlights a lesser-known risk faced by cocoa production amidst the festive Halloween season when stores showcase vibrant chocolate assortments. According to Anna Lea Albright, an environmental fellow at Harvard University, heavy rainfall poses a more significant threat to cocoa cultivation than heat and drought, traditionally perceived as the primary climate risks.
The study points out that cocoa prices have surged in recent years, with a tonne of cocoa now priced around $6,000 US, compared to the previous range of $2,000 to $3,000 US per tonne since 2014. Factors such as severe flooding in West Africa, the top cocoa-producing region with over two million farmers, triggered a price spike to over $12,000 US in 2024.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges faced by farmers due to excessive rainfall affecting crop management and harvest schedules. Despite the looming threat of climate change intensifying extreme rainfall events, the study suggests potential interventions to safeguard cocoa production, a beloved commodity for billions worldwide.
The research, focusing on Ghana as the second-largest cocoa producer globally, revealed that extreme rainfall during flowering stages significantly limits cocoa yields compared to temperature variations. Excessive moisture can harm delicate cocoa tree flowers and pods, leading to lower productivity and increased susceptibility to fungal diseases like black pod disease, exacerbated by heavy rains.
Albright emphasized the correlation between warmer air, increased moisture content, and intensified heavy rainfall events during the wet season, as evident in satellite and rain gauge data over recent decades. While El Niño patterns in West Africa may reduce extreme rainfall risks but raise drought probabilities, challenges persist for cocoa farmers, necessitating sustainable solutions and infrastructure investments.
Apart from climatic risks, the study highlighted non-climactic threats such as aging trees and illegal mining affecting cocoa production. Experts stress the importance of implementing strategies like fungicide application and improved drainage systems to combat fungal diseases and mitigate losses.
As the unpredictability of climate impacts looms over cocoa farming in West Africa, the study raises concerns about the future viability of smallholder farming practices. This uncertainty has prompted innovations in cocoa-free chocolate alternatives, such as Nestlé’s collaboration with a German startup producing sunflower seed-based ChoViva chocolate, offering a resilient and controlled supply chain.
In conclusion, experts underscore the urgent need for sustainable practices and strategic interventions to address the escalating challenges faced by cocoa farmers due to extreme rainfall events and climate change, ensuring the longevity and resilience of cocoa production in the face of mounting environmental pressures.
