The agreement between the United States and Russia limiting their strategic nuclear weapons deployment has expired, raising uncertainties about the next steps for President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. The lapse of the New START treaty, which began in 1972, means that there is currently no formal agreement in place to restrict the size of the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.
While opinions vary on whether the treaty’s termination will trigger a new nuclear arms race, experts generally agree that the agreement requires significant revisions to address current nuclear dynamics, particularly considering China’s expanding weapons program. However, the likelihood of a swift update agreement involving Trump, Putin, and China’s President Xi Jinping seems optimistic at best.
Former U.S. diplomat Thomas Countryman, who previously served as acting under-secretary of state for arms control and international security, expressed concerns about the heightened risk of nuclear weapon use following the treaty’s expiration, comparing it to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
Under the now-defunct treaty, the U.S. and Russia agreed to cap their nuclear warheads at 1,550 each and limit their deployments of intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and launchers. Despite Russia’s previous proposal to renew the treaty before Trump’s summit in Alaska, the idea did not materialize.
President Trump has downplayed the significance of the treaty’s end, emphasizing the pursuit of a new, enhanced, and modernized agreement to replace the expired one. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also underscored the importance of involving China in any future arms control discussions.
A Pentagon report revealed China’s plans to expand its current nuclear warhead arsenal from around 600 to over 1,000 by 2030, indicating a significant nuclear build-up. Experts like Jim Walsh from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program fear that the absence of the U.S.-Russia treaty could exacerbate China’s nuclear expansion.
While the U.S. and Russia are exploring options to maintain the treaty’s weapon limits without a formal extension, uncertainties persist about the post-expiration scenario. Despite calls for a new agreement, the complex interplay of nuclear dynamics involving the U.S., Russia, and China poses challenges for future arms control efforts.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov highlighted discussions between Putin and Xi following the treaty’s expiration, emphasizing Russia’s commitment to strategic stability and national interests in nuclear weapon matters.
