After a year and a half of reduced travel to the United States, Canadians are slowly starting to venture across the border once again. Recent data from Statistics Canada shows that in June, the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. increased by 3.2% compared to the same period last year. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, with a 9.5% rise in May and a 1.4% increase in April.
The rise in inbound travel was primarily driven by an uptick in car travel, with 5.2% more Canadians returning from the U.S. by road compared to the previous June. Conversely, air travel from the States to Canada saw a 3.8% decrease year-over-year in June.
Despite this slight increase in car travel, the overall volume of U.S. travel by Canadians remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels. This indicates that while there is some optimism in the U.S. tourism sector, a substantial recovery may still be some time away.
Compared to June 2024 when trade tensions and threats of annexation by former U.S. President Donald Trump deterred Canadians from traveling to the U.S., last month’s return travel saw a sharp decline of 28.7%.
According to Wayne Smith, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University’s Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research, the recent uptick in travel signifies a gradual return to normalcy rather than a complete shift in travel patterns. Smith believes that the current travel rates reflect a new standard as Canadian visits to the U.S. have remained consistently lower over the past 18 months.
Kristy Kennedy, Vice President of Marketing and Operations at the North Country Chamber of Commerce, notes that businesses near the Quebec border in New York State have observed a slight increase in Canadian visitors. Kennedy mentions hearing more French spoken in public spaces, indicating a resurgence in Canadian tourism that was absent during the previous year.
Amir Eylon, President and CEO of travel consultancy Longwoods International, suggests that recent promotional campaigns may have contributed to the rise in cross-border travel. Incentives such as discounts and favorable exchange rates likely enticed travelers seeking cost-effective options. Additionally, the surge in jet fuel prices may have influenced travelers to choose domestic destinations over international ones.
The recent uptick in travel, possibly influenced by the World Cup hosted by Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, has sparked cautious optimism within the tourism industry. Eylon emphasizes that while the growth is incremental, three consecutive months of positive trends indicate a positive trajectory.
However, Smith remains skeptical about the impact of the minor increase on American tourism businesses. He highlights that air travel, which typically brings higher-spending and longer-staying visitors, has seen a decline in the past three months. The shift towards car travel and the challenges posed by changing travel habits and a weak Canadian dollar present obstacles for the U.S. in regaining Canadian travelers.
