Health authorities combating the Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas at risk of virus transmission, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative strategy, a first in Ebola response efforts, is crucial as officials grapple with what the WHO has labeled the most rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak has spread across six provinces, affecting over 6,250 individuals and claiming 3,039 lives since its declaration on May 15, according to the latest government figures.
This particular Ebola outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is attributed to the Bundibugyo strain of the virus, for which there are no authorized vaccines or treatments.
Given the virus’s progression, health experts are seeking methods to forecast potential outbreak locations to allocate limited surveillance and response resources effectively.
Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of understanding population movements in the current epidemic. Traditional risk assessments typically focus on outbreak epicenters and presume the virus will spread to nearby regions. By analyzing mobility data, responders can identify risks in geographically distant areas connected through travel patterns, providing a more detailed risk assessment.
For instance, in Ituri province, mining activities and trade drive substantial population movements. Recognizing these movements is crucial to comprehending the outbreak’s spread pattern.
Analyzed by the Swedish non-profit organization Flowminder, the data is generated from anonymized records when mobile phone users connect to telecommunications networks. These records, which indicate where connections occurred, enable researchers to estimate travel patterns between various regions.
Flowminder’s founder, Linus Bengtsson, clarified that the data provided is used to predict how infectious individuals move, without accessing personal subscriber information.
Despite limitations concerning data from Congolese mobile networks and reliance on a single operator, Vodacom, efforts are underway to establish similar agreements with other operators to enhance coverage and obtain more comprehensive data, as per Flowminder and UN officials involved in the response.
