In the wee hours of Wednesday, telescopes across the globe will attempt to capture a rare event: an aged rocket crashing into the illuminated side of the moon. The rocket in question is the second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 that carried two lunar landers, Firefly Blue Ghost-1 from the U.S. and ispace Hakuto-R Resilience from Japan, launched back in January 2025.
Independent astronomer Bill Gray, who tracks objects in space, discovered last September that the rocket was on course for a close encounter with the moon on August 5, 2026. Calculating the exact orbital path was complex due to the subtle influence of the sun’s gravity in addition to the moon and Earth.
As the refined orbit data came in, it became evident that the rocket was not going to have a near miss but a direct impact on the moon. The collision is expected to occur on the moon’s daylight side near its limb.
This event is not unprecedented, as man-made objects like Apollo upper stages and intentionally smashed items have previously struck the lunar surface. Notable impacts include NASA’s Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite and ESA’s SMART-1 spacecraft, which left a significant crater upon impact.
A group of astronomers has urged large observatories and serious amateur astronomers to observe the upcoming impact on August 5 at 2:34:32.9 a.m. ET. The best viewing locations will be in central and eastern Canada, the U.S., parts of the Caribbean, and South America.
The rocket, traveling at approximately 2.43 km/h, is expected to release a plume of debris into space, possibly exceeding one million kilograms before most of it falls back to the lunar surface. Observations of this event are crucial to gather valuable information.
Astronomers aim to understand the risks posed by artificial impacts as humanity embarks on more lunar missions. The event will shed light on both direct and indirect hazards, including the consequences of debris falling back to the lunar surface.
While the chances of an astronaut being hit by this impact are slim, there are unique hazards to consider. The continuous monitoring of space objects, like China’s Chang’e 3 upper stage, is essential to assess potential impacts on Earth or the moon in the future.
