With a new defection from the NDP to the Liberal party by Nunavut MP Lori Idlout, Prime Minister Mark Carney may gain a slight majority after the upcoming byelections. The Liberals now have 170 seats, just two short of a majority, with three byelections scheduled for the following month. Two of these byelections in Toronto, previously held by cabinet ministers Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, are expected to be won by the Liberals.
Even with 172 seats, giving the Liberals a potential majority, they would still need the support of at least one opposition MP or the Speaker to break ties during votes. Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, despite being a Liberal, is expected to remain impartial and vote to maintain the status quo in most cases. The Liberals may also depend on opposition parties to advance legislation through committees, given the even split between Liberals and Conservatives.
While the recent motion locking in committee standings for the current Parliament poses challenges, potential wins in the upcoming byelections could strengthen the Liberal position. The byelection in Terrebonne is anticipated to be closely contested, following a one-vote victory for the Liberals in the previous election, now subject to a redo due to a mail-in ballot misprint. Overall, the political landscape remains dynamic, with the upcoming byelections playing a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in the House of Commons.
