The recent U.S. offensive against Venezuela has caused a shift in the activities of guerrilla groups in border regions with Colombia. Local security experts warn of potential betrayal by Venezuelan officials and the risk of escalating conflict if U.S. troops become involved. Following the attacks on January 3, reports indicate increased guerrilla movements on both sides of the border. The National Liberation Army (ELN), a prominent guerrilla group, has reportedly taken precautionary measures such as closing camps in Venezuela to avoid potential exposure to U.S. authorities by Venezuelan regime officials.
Experts suggest that the ELN is adjusting its security strategies and social control systems within Venezuelan communities where their leaders are located. Training operations and plans for a special forces unit with Venezuelan military assistance have been suspended by the ELN, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the situation. The ELN had previously anticipated a U.S. intervention in Venezuela, with past warnings and preparations indicating their readiness for such a scenario.
The ELN could capitalize on the current situation to pursue its ambition of becoming a continental guerrilla force if the U.S. military presence in Venezuela materializes or if the Venezuelan regime fractures. Ivan Mordisco, a leader of a splinter group from the FARC, has called for unity among guerrilla groups and the Venezuelan military to resist the U.S. However, doubts linger about the practicality of such cooperation due to Mordisco’s credibility issues and criminal status.
The ELN, with a significant presence in Colombia and Venezuela, spanning border territories rich in natural resources, has historical ties with the Venezuelan government. The group’s alignment with Venezuela’s political ideology and the mutual support for the Bolivarian Revolution have solidified their relationship over the years. As international efforts intensify to combat the ELN, including recent discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the situation in the region remains complex.
Calls for a comprehensive approach to peace by empowering Latin American communities to safeguard human rights and promote peaceful coexistence have been echoed by advocates in border cities like Cúcuta, Colombia. The need for sustainable solutions beyond military interventions is emphasized to address the root causes of conflict in the region.
