CHRIS HUGHES: Chinese fighters captured in Ukraine has worrying implications for world
President Zelensky’s revelation that Chinese nationals are fighting alongside Russian forces has seriously worrying implications. Ukraine’s intelligence agencies have told him there are even more Chinese nationals, although their numbers are not known. But if there is a suggestion these are state-sponsored forces entering the war then that means Beijing has become directly involved in the war.
For Beijing’s President XI that would be a massive U-turn as it is thought he has steadfastly avoided getting involved in Putin’s folly. He may have secretly agreed to provide Moscow with technical support but he has shown no interest in sending troops, so far. For now this does seem unlikely as strategically there is little or no value or reward for China in becoming embroiled in such a costly enterprise.
Conversely it would divert from Xi’s desires towards Taiwan and it has long been thought that China was sitting at the sidelines, watching Russia weaken because of the war. China has been reticent about support Russia’s attempts at expansion into Ukraine.
But there is an outside possibility, a very small one, that some Chinese troops have been sent into Ukraine to gain combat experience, offering them a leverage against Taiwan. However, for now, it is much more likely that these are mercenaries who have joined the war for financial gain but even so, it is a diplomatic nightmare for Beijing.
Zelensky has been measured in his comments, calling the two prisoners ‘Chinese nationals’ rather than saying they are “Chinese soldiers.” That subtle difference underlines he is being cautious and not lumping them in with North Korean troops who are state sponsored.
It will be fascinating to see what the Beijing regime says about these arrests and if it is keen to distance itself from their presence in the war. That would mean these people fighting with Russia have made the decision of their own volition and their presence does not not mark a huge escalation.
But America too will be demanding answers and will be keen to liase with Ukraine’s intelligence agencies and government to find out what they know so far from the two prisoners.
The alarm could hugely ramp up tension between America and China which is already engaged in a damaging tit-for-tat trade war and Donald Trump would be furious his attempts to broker a peace deal have been smashed.
However if nothing is said then it could mean there really is a major development brewing and that Beijing has for some reason decided to commit. For now, it seems highly unlikely and more possible that these two prisoners are not “Chinese soldiers” but instead are mercenaries, who are found in most conflicts.
There is another possibility, that they are technical experts of some sort and were advising Russian troops on how to use a form of Chinese equipment. Or, they could be employed by Beijing’s cast intelligence network and were gathering information to report back.
But the hope in the west will be that they are mercenaries and not serving members of the Chinese military. If they were sent officially, to gather experience on the battlefield so they can pass it on to their comrades, that will be an enormous escalation and will have diplomats scrabbling for their phones to stop the escalation towards international conflict.
As The Mirror’s Defence and Security Editor I have covered war and terror at home and abroad for more than 20 years.
It has taken me to fascinating places such as Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon, elsewhere in the Middle East, across Africa and even Korea.
I have also spent months in Ukraine reporting on Russia’s invasion. If you want exclusive analysis, please sign up for my newsletter below.
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