Electricity demand in Canada is expected to see a significant increase by the year 2050, as per the latest modeling data from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released on Tuesday. The projections also indicate a strong growth trajectory for natural gas production and the expansion of renewable energy sources within the country.
The CER’s modeling highlights a projected surge in power consumption nationwide, with an estimated 44% growth from 2023 to 2050. This growth is attributed to rising residential and industrial demands, as well as the technology sector, particularly AI data centers.
The capacity of Canada’s electricity system is anticipated to double from 160 gigawatts in 2023 to 310 gigawatts by 2050. The majority of this increase in production is expected to come from wind energy, which could see a substantial expansion from 40 terawatt-hours in 2023 to 277 terawatt-hours by 2050, according to the CER.
Darren Christie, the CER’s chief economist, emphasized that while wind energy is projected to be the primary incremental source of generation, there is also expected growth in solar energy. These variable power sources will be complemented by increased generation from more stable sources like hydroelectricity, nuclear power, and natural gas.
Christie further highlighted the growing role of interprovincial power lines in balancing electricity supply and demand, with total interprovincial transmission capacity predicted to increase by approximately 70% by 2050.
In Ontario, the construction of the first of four small modular nuclear power plants is underway, with a total cost exceeding $20 billion. Similarly, provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan are pursuing similar nuclear power projects.
The modeling forecasts relatively stable levels of oil and natural gas consumption in the coming decades, with a projected 1% increase in fossil fuel usage by 2050 compared to 2023.
The production of natural gas is expected to rise from around 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to a range of 21 billion to 32 billion by 2050, contingent on the development of liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities. The growth in natural gas production is anticipated to be a significant driver of overall production expansion.
Regarding oil production, the CER’s modeling presents varying scenarios due to factors like uncertain global commodity prices. Canada’s oil production could potentially increase by 18% or decrease by 12% by 2050.
The CER has outlined four distinct scenarios, including a traditional baseline, projecting peak oil production at 6.1 million barrels per day by 2042, leveling off to 5.9 million barrels by 2050.
All scenarios indicate a decline in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming years, attributed to a cleaner electricity grid and enhanced environmental practices across various sectors. However, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would necessitate a comprehensive shift towards low-carbon technologies, as outlined in the latest CER energy outlook.
The Canada Energy Regulator published its initial energy outlook in 1967, with the most recent update being the first since 2023.
