In examining the trajectory of Pierre Poilievre’s political journey, one can reflect on two surveys conducted around three-and-a-half years apart. Initially, in September 2022, shortly after Poilievre assumed leadership of the Conservative Party, a poll by Abacus Data revealed that 35% of Canadians leaned towards voting for Poilievre’s party, granting the Conservatives a five-point advantage over the Liberals. Although Poilievre wasn’t overwhelmingly popular with the public at that time, as 34% had a negative opinion of him compared to 29% with a positive view, he was perceived more favorably than his Liberal counterpart.
Conversely, during the same period in 2022, 49% of Canadians disapproved of the Liberal government, with only 37% showing approval. Furthermore, 48% held a negative perception of the then-Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, while only 33% viewed him positively.
Fast forward to late January 2026, where a recent Abacus poll showcased an interesting shift. Support for the Conservative Party had actually increased by four points since September 2022, and 38% of Canadians now held a positive opinion of Poilievre. However, the number of individuals with a negative impression of the Conservative leader also rose, with 44% expressing unfavorable views. Notably, public sentiment towards the government had reversed, with 54% approving of its performance and only 31% disapproving. Similarly, 53% viewed the current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, positively, while 30% held a negative perspective.
Despite 39% of Canadians still leaning towards voting Conservative, a hypothetical election in late January would have seen 43% of Canadians supporting the Liberal party. Poilievre’s ascendancy to Conservative leadership in September 2022 seemed promising. Yet, the evolving landscape over the past year has posed challenges to his leadership.
In his recent address at the Conservative convention in Calgary, Poilievre maintained a consistent stance, emphasizing themes such as affordability and growth. While his rhetoric showcased a slightly different tone, highlighting optimism and hope, it did not mark a significant departure from his previous positions.
Looking ahead, Poilievre’s ability to maintain party unity and capitalize on potential disillusionment with the current government will be critical. However, his populist inclinations, which have drawn comparisons to Trump, may present obstacles in garnering broader support across the political spectrum. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the future remains uncertain for Poilievre and the Conservative Party.
