The current NDP leadership contest is shaping up to be a close race with no clear frontrunner emerging yet, leaving Canadians unsure of the outcome. According to NDP strategists and analysts, the field of candidates now boasts three top contenders. As the crucial deadline for membership sign-ups approaches on Jan. 28, the race remains unpredictable, with no candidate holding a definitive path to victory and all displaying signs of momentum.
Ji Won Jung, an organizer with the grassroots movement Reclaim Canada’s NDP, emphasized the early stage of the competition, stating that there is significant room for fluctuations. Five candidates are expected to be on the ballot at the national convention in Winnipeg in March, but insiders suggest that Heather McPherson, Avi Lewis, and Rob Ashton are the most likely contenders for the leadership role.
In the initial stages of the race back in September, McPherson was anticipated to have an easy path to victory as the sole sitting MP in the running. However, the landscape has shifted, with McPherson positioning herself as a stable leader with a successful electoral history and a focus on challenging Conservatives in Alberta. Her campaign, often viewed as representing the party’s establishment, has garnered support from former staffers of past leaders like Jack Layton and Jagmeet Singh.
McPherson, along with other candidates, is actively working to enroll new members and encourage past members to renew their memberships, recognizing the critical role of membership numbers in the NDP’s voting system. McPherson’s concentration on the Prairie provinces, particularly Alberta, where she has received backing from former Alberta NDP premier Rachel Notley, could provide her with an advantage due to the province’s substantial NDP membership base.
While Lewis has garnered significant donor support, raising substantial funds for his campaign, candidates Johnston and McQuail, considered underdogs, are facing challenges in fundraising efforts. Despite financial obstacles, both candidates have managed to stay in the race and collaborate on joint fundraising initiatives.
Endorsements and organizational support are becoming pivotal factors in the leadership race, with Ashton securing the backing of the United Steelworkers union, a significant boost for his relatively lesser-known campaign. The evolving dynamics of the race, including potential conflicts between candidates, indicate a shift towards a more intense competition, contrasting the initial perception of a lackluster campaign.
