Wiarton Willie, like many other Canadian animal forecasters, anticipates an early spring following his shadow-less appearance on Groundhog Day. The annual tradition involves observing animals emerging from hibernation to forecast whether an early spring or six more weeks of winter are on the horizon.
On February 2, groundhogs and even a lobster venture out to check for their shadows. Notable Canadian weather predictors include Shubenacadie Sam from Nova Scotia and Lucy the Lobster from Barrington, N.S., both forecasting an early spring. Fred la marmotte in Quebec also predicts an early spring, while Van Isle Violet in Nanaimo, B.C., foresees six more weeks of winter. In contrast, Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania anticipates an extended winter.
According to legend, if a groundhog (or a crustacean like Lucy) emerges on a sunny day and spots its shadow, it will retreat for six more weeks of winter. Conversely, if it’s cloudy without a shadow, an early spring is expected.
Wiarton Willie, an Ontario icon, made his early spring prediction during the annual Groundhog Day ceremony on February 2, 2026. The event in Wiarton, attracting about 1,900 residents, takes place at Bluewater Park, featuring various festivities like breakfast, fireworks, curling events, and family activities.
Danielle Edwards, overseeing economic development for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula, views Groundhog Day events as a homecoming tradition, bringing families and friends together to celebrate. Opinions on Willie’s prediction are split evenly between those favoring more winter activities and those yearning for sunny days at the beach.
Groundhog Day’s origins trace back to the U.S., with Punxsutawney Phil marking the first prediction in 1886. The tradition in Wiarton began in 1956 as a playful joke, eventually evolving into a beloved annual event attracting tourists and locals alike.
Accuracy rates of animal weather forecasters vary widely. Wiarton Willie boasts a 29% success rate since 2000, the lowest among five “marmot meteorologists.” In the U.S., accuracy rates of groundhogs range from 25% (Mohave Max the tortoise) to 85% (New York’s Staten Island Chuck), as graded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Various unique predictors have emerged over the years, including Bonhomme Couèche, Manitoba Merv, Alberta’s Balzac Billy, and B.C.’s Okanagan Okie, each offering their own shadow-driven predictions on Groundhog Day.
