The coalition of nations backing Ukraine, which includes Canada, are at a critical juncture as they gather in Paris this week to chart a viable course towards a potential ceasefire and reconstruction. Prime Minister Mark Carney will be present at the meeting of over 30 leaders, focusing on the crucial issue of post-conflict security guarantees aimed at dissuading Russia from pausing briefly before resuming its efforts to dominate all neighboring Eastern European countries in the coming years.
French President Emmanuel Macron has invited the leaders to convene on Tuesday, with defense chiefs from coalition nations meeting the day prior. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently held discussions with 18 coalition national security and defense advisers in Kyiv, where the topic of collective security guarantees and their role in the broader peace initiatives led by the U.S. and President Donald Trump were key agenda items.
Zelenskyy expressed optimism that security assurances would be finalized during the Paris meeting, highlighting upcoming discussions with President Trump’s team. Emphasizing the urgency of robust and credible security guarantees in light of Russia’s ongoing aggression, Zelenskyy underscored the need to prevent delays and diversions in the peace process.
Matthew Schmidt, a national security expert at the University of New Haven, praised Ukraine’s success in garnering military support from European allies, transforming initial reluctance into concrete commitments. He noted the significance of the coalition of supportive nations, including Canada, in providing meaningful security assurances in the absence of NATO membership.
With potential security guarantees from Europe and Canada potentially negating Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, President Trump has proposed strong security assurances as part of a peace framework to resolve the conflict with Russia. However, Zelenskyy advocates for a longer-term approach, signaling differing perspectives on the timeline for a peace deal.
As preparations intensify for Ukraine’s involvement in potential peace talks, uncertainties persist regarding Russia’s willingness to compromise. While Moscow has indicated openness to a U.S.-led peace framework for future negotiations, it maintains demands that could entail significant concessions from Ukraine, such as territorial compromises and military reductions. Additionally, Russia opposes foreign military presence in Ukraine under Western security guarantees.
