Environment and Climate Change Canada predicts that 2026 is likely to rank among the top four warmest years on record. A recent analysis on ClimateData.ca indicates that scientists are highly confident that 2026 will be one of the hottest years ever documented. The increase in carbon emissions, primarily from the combustion of coal, oil, and gas, is the main driver of global warming. However, factors other than human activities also contribute to the record-breaking temperatures.
The analysis attributes the unprecedented global temperatures in recent years partly to the strong El Niño event in 2023-2024, exacerbated by ongoing human-induced climate change. Projections suggest that this year’s global average temperature will range between 1.35°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. There is a 12% probability of surpassing the critical threshold of 1.5°C, which countries like Canada, signatories to the Paris Agreement, have pledged to avoid.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to under 2°C above pre-industrial levels while striving to restrict the temperature rise to 1.5°C. The ultimate objective is to achieve global net-zero emissions by 2050. Maintaining global warming below 1.5°C significantly reduces the risks of extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and heavy rainfall, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The analysis from Canada clarifies that exceeding 1.5°C in a single year does not equate to failing the Paris Agreement’s objective, which focuses on the long-term average temperature over multiple decades. Nonetheless, the forecast indicates a concerning trend toward higher temperatures. This year is anticipated to mark the 13th consecutive year with global temperatures surpassing 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
Global temperature changes are typically measured relative to the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900), the earliest period with reliable temperature data. Apart from Environment and Climate Change Canada, the non-profit Berkeley Earth also anticipates 2026 to be akin to 2025, the fourth-warmest year since 1850, following closely behind the third and second-warmest years of 2024 and 2023.
This projection aligns with the ongoing trend of rising global temperatures, emphasizing the urgent need for climate action to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
